·Xu Changming: In 2020, China’s car ownership will reach 250 million vehicles.

On October 21-24, 2015, the 2015 Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Planning Exhibition and the China International Pure Electric Vehicle, Hybrid Vehicle and Fuel Cell Vehicle with the theme of “Choose·Action--The Future Starts Now” And the key component technology exchange exhibition was held at the Beijing National Convention Center. The following is a speech by Xu Changming, Director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center.
Xu Changming: Hello everyone, my topic is a little different from this. It is a medium-and long-term trend in the auto market. Everyone thinks that this topic may not be related to today's theme, but the degree of relevance is very high. I think after I finish speaking, everyone The relationship between the development of the automotive market and the new energy vehicles.
I share two points of view. The first point is that in the next few years, our country's passenger car market will return to a medium-speed growth trend, ending this year's low speed, probably about 1.3 times its GDP growth rate. 1 time, recently to 1.3 times, long-term short-term development.
The second is that new energy vehicles are very important for the healthy development of the automobile industry and the development of the entire economy and society in China.
Let's take a look at these pictures. This is the car of this year. It has been high speed since 2000. The curve is speed, but this year the speed has dropped. From January to September, it is only 3.5. This is a passenger car. From a seasonal point of view, it is okay in January and February, and it will be down in March, then the lowest point in July, negative growth, and 678 are negative. This is a change this year. It is estimated that there is no incentive policy throughout the year. In the case of the introduction, economic factors can restore the auto market to around 4%, plus the incentive policy will be 9% this year.
What is the medium and long term in the future? Just as I said, it is probably a medium speed. This speed is equivalent to 1.3 times to 1 times of GDP. Then this conclusion is based on our empirical evidence for the global automotive market and the leading countries. Analyze the conclusions made.
There are two periods in the United States, the first period is from the thousand people market. The duration is relatively short, roughly five years. Japan and South Korea have experienced a period of time. We have also experienced it. We are from 2001 to 2008.
Compared with the first period, it dropped by 10 percentage points, about ten years. In different countries, the situation is not the same. Japan's time is relatively short. It took about eight years. It is faster, with an average annual rate of 22%. South Korea has spent 12 years, with an average annual rate of 20%. We speculate that our country will last for about 16 years. Compared with the span of two Japan, the average annual speed is 13 to 15, which is how to speculate. Why, there will be different.
In fact, Japan calls high speed for a short period of time. We are relatively low speed for a relatively long period of time. The decisive factor for the difference in development path is the state of income determination. If a country’s income is very equal, it means When you buy a car, the time to get to your left neighbor is relatively short. It takes a period of time for you to buy your neighbors, and it takes time to go down, and Japan is the income gap. In very small countries, our income gap is very large. We have urban-rural gaps, industry gaps, and income gaps in the East, Central and West regions.
From 2001 to 2008, the main metropolitan area, the Shanghai Circle, and the Guangzhou Circle supported 2001 to 2008. The development in recent years has also been relatively fast, mainly supported by the central region, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia. . So our development probably has gradients, central, western, and eastern, which means that it is not high speed at the same time. So our average speed is low, about 13 to 15. This is not the same as it.
However, due to the 2009 company, we should have declined in 2010, and we have reached the second phase. As a result, we have a policy of 4 trillion yuan, which makes our car consumption doubled within two years, which means that we are From 2013 to 2014, it was realized in 2010. From now on, the approximate speed may be around 8%. In the past two years, it is slightly faster, and then it is lower. This is a result of our deduction from the international law. Of course, this is only a theoretical derivation. Whether it can be realized according to this, we will look at our future economic development.
We now have three budgets, one 7 one, eight one, and six. I think the speed is no matter how much it is, as long as it is stable. The reason why the two years have fallen is that our economy is not stable. As long as it is stable, it can be. If it is 6 times 1.3, it will be 8% in the near future. If it is 7 times 1.3, it is 9%. If it is 8 times 1.3, then It is about 10%, as long as the economy is maintained, it will provide a solid foundation for our car development.
The key to the next step is if we develop according to the speed I have just measured, and then develop for a few years. By 2024, after another ten years, how much will our speed be? Let’s forget that the passenger car is close to more than 30,000. , will this level break through our peak point? In the end, how many cars we sell in a country will peak, so we can follow our simple calculation results, with the average level of Japan and the four European countries, with their possession in Denmark. By comparison, we have not reached the peak point. According to their calculations, our peak point is more than 60 million.
We made a simple calculation, that is, according to the first column of Europe, we say an average sales level, the second column is the population, the third column is a division, no one hundred people buy a few cars, the lowest in Denmark four Around the car, then we said that if we calculate according to the average level of the four European countries, one hundred people buy 4.45 cars a year, our population saturation point is 1.5 billion, then the two ones come out, our highest peak car The sales volume is about 66 million. If we follow the Danish level, our peak point is 61 million, which is probably estimated.
It is the number of cars owned by thousands of people. In the end, this data is high. If you buy a car every year, the number of cars in the United States is the highest. In other countries, it is about 600 people in a thousand or so. Basically in this. The level is basically. Then what factors determine the number of cars for thousands of people? Since it determines this quantity, then the research we are studying is in the economic development. At this stage, we have income that determines the number of people in possession, where the income level is high, the number of thousands of people is high, and every household can afford a car. At the time, it is not the income to determine the level of thousands of people, the factors determined, the population density, the more people per square kilometer, the lower the number of thousand people, the lower the number of thousands of people in such a region. In fact, it is very simple. In the end, you can't buy a car. It's not that the road is congested and not congested. You can buy it when you are congested. What determines you buy a car? You have a parking space at home. You don't have a place to park. Your willingness to buy a car will drop. In the later period, population density is determined.
This is a picture of Japan. Tokyo has the highest population density of 11,000 people per square kilometer. It is about 9000 people per square kilometer in Osaka. The lower the number of 2,000 people per square kilometer behind, about six or seven hundred vehicles. Then, what is the population density of our country? We have calculated it. If we calculate according to the national area, we have 143 people per square kilometer. Therefore, according to this dense population, we have made some calculations.
For example, from Yunnan to Heilongjiang, they have a line. We have drawn a line now. The results are calculated. 94% of people live in the east of this line, and 6% live in the west, so the west side cannot be studied. It doesn't make sense to study the east side. According to the calculation results in the east, we have 300 people per square kilometer. The 300 people in the world are about the same level as the United Kingdom, Italy, and Germany. They are the number of people per square kilometer.
Japan's population density is four times that of ours. Its 1,000-person car ownership is 589. This is an objective law. When you get to that level of income, you want to buy a car. The block is unstoppable. We also try Not let everyone buy, and finally the car is popular. Therefore, this is the basic law. If we measure this, of course, we will be able to reach this level in the future. This is a conclusion of our research three years ago. Let us do a detailed study and find a country to compare with each province. Look at it because many people now question that we have so many people can't afford a car, like rural 50 years old and over 60 years old, can't afford it now, can't afford it in the future, the world is incomparable, but I firmly believe that the world is four This is definitely achievable, that is, 600 million cars. Why do we say that car ownership is related to new energy? What is the concept of our 600 million cars? We can see how much oil we consume.
By 2020, we will budget to reach 250 million vehicles. Our current dependence on oil imports is close to 60%. For every 100 tons of oil sold, 60 tons of oil is imported. If we develop again, the dependence will be higher because Our domestic oil is 200 million tons. The added oil is all imported. The pillars below are very stable. The imported pillars are gradually added. In the future, our 250 million cars will consume a lot of oil, which is probably the level of the United States. The United States is now 250 million. Only the American car is the biggest, and the second largest car is China. Because Chinese values ​​believe that what is big, it means value. This is a cultural tradition of thousands of years. Audi is so small that China is prolonged, and BMW is also lengthened. If we don’t move, China’s car will determine the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers. In addition, our mileage is similar to that of the United States. So when we have 250 million cars, as much as the United States, in theory, we use oil. Almost as much as the United States, plus 300 million people in the United States, we have 1.3 billion and an extra billion. When we have as many cars as there are in the United States, we have a little more than the United States. The United States has 850 million oils. We are now 500 million oils. We have to increase. If you want to sell more than 20,000 cars, you have to increase the price of gasoline. consumption. Therefore, in this case, the population density may not be the most critical in the future. The most critical future may be our oil problem. Can we solve it? If it is 250 million, it needs 850 million tons of oil. Then think about it, 600 million in the future. Car, how much oil, we now consume 4 billion tons of oil in the world, the trade volume is 2 billion tons, our country now consumes 500 million tons, accounting for 12.5% ​​of the total. If we go to 800 million tons, it is the total amount of 25 %, only the United States is like this in the world.
We now consume 12.5% ​​of our consumption, and our imports account for 15% of the world. If we are 800 million, then 30% of the oil will be imported to China. Since the development of automobiles is unstoppable, The issue of using oil is the theme of our day, and we must develop new energy vehicles to solve them.
Of course, I think that the new energy can't solve the problem in the short term. By 2020, there will be 250 million vehicles. Besides the new energy, I think the fuel economy of the car must also be considered. Everyone in our country is not paying attention to it now. Like a hybrid car, it is a hurdle that cannot be avoided in our country. It must be developed. In theory, it can be 40%. You can use 10 liters of oil per 100 kilometers. After that, it will reach 6 liters, then our 600 million cars will be similar to 230 million. Therefore, in the future, we will develop energy-saving vehicles in parallel with new energy vehicles. Now we have put our focus on new energy vehicles. I think it is parallel development. The reason why we consider new energy vehicles is so important now, I believe that it is not from the perspective of oil, it is from its own brand, hoping to develop new energy vehicles and put the competitiveness of its own brands. This is the two points I shared with you today. Thank you.

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