The weakening of supply and demand growth in the first quarter is expected to provide an overall balance between supply and demand this year. The overall price level will increase by 5% to 6%.
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According to analysis, the main features of the first quarter of the production material market are as follows: First, the growth of supply and demand has weakened, and the total sales growth rate has dropped to 14.6%, which represents a 9.2% year-on-year growth rate. According to statistical calculations on 30 major production materials, resource supply in the first quarter increased by 11.1%, demand increased by 14.2%, supply growth fell by 10.5% year-on-year, and demand growth fell by 6.2% year-on-year. Second, the price increase slowed down, with an overall increase of 6.1%, down 8.7 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, raw coal rose 19.4%, refined oil rose 12.3%, and major chemical products rose 18.2%. Third, exports continued to expand, and imports slowed down on a monthly basis, becoming an important factor affecting changes in supply and demand.
The factors affecting the changes in the production materials market in the first quarter of this year are as follows: First, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets has declined significantly. In particular, the rapid growth of investment in iron and steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other industries has been effectively suppressed; second, the increase in heavy industry in industrial production. The slowdown has slowed down the growth in the demand for industrial raw materials. Third, the supply and demand in the first quarter of last year increased substantially and prices continued to climb. However, it should be said that the first quarter of this year's decline is a decline in the higher level, sales are still in the growth range, prices are still rising channels.
According to another analysis, the main reasons for the rapid growth in China's means of production exports and the significant drop in imports in the first quarter were as follows: First, the policy anticipation mentality was significantly increased, resulting in a certain degree of concentrated export; Second, the international demand was relatively large and the price was significantly higher than domestic Third, the domestic supply capacity has been increased and stocks have increased, which has enhanced the ability to import imported goods.
Regarding the basic judgments of the domestic market trend of domestic means of production, the main influencing factors are: First, domestic GDP growth rate reached 9.5% in the first quarter, although it has fallen year-on-year, but it is still significantly higher than the national macro-control objectives; Second, the world economy Maintaining a steady upward trend provides opportunities for domestic companies to participate extensively in international cooperation and competition. Third, moderately tight macro-control policies will play an active role. Some industry investment overheating issues are gradually being solved. Economic development is fundamental to energy and raw materials. The demand for products tends to be rational, which has created the conditions for alleviating the bottleneck of coal, electricity, oil, and transportation brought about by the rising stage of economic development. Fourth, the prices of energy and basic raw materials in the international market are in an uptrend and will inevitably result in the Chinese market. Conduction, but judging from the trend of the whole year, the domestic market will basically show the trend of “high before and after low†which rose in the first half of the year and stabilized in the second half of the year.
Taking these factors into account, this year's supply and demand growth of domestic means of production will slow down as investment and heavy industry production slow down. The overall supply and demand balance can be maintained, but some energy and metal materials will still be in short supply. The overall price level will be presented. The trend of high stability and declining growth momentum. It is expected that the overall price level for the whole year will increase by 5% to 6%.